Gold

Key insight

4,355 rebounds sharply from Mon's 4,332 low — Aug CPI at 3.4% kept Fed hawks vocal, but gold's +1.4% surge signals market is front-running a hawkish pause, not another hike.

4,355 reclaims +1.4% today as FOMC rate decision looms — hawkish hold already partially priced; any dovish signal from Warsh unlocks a run toward 4,500.

Main risk

Fed hikes 25bps — hawkish surprise

66% FedWatch probability of 25bps hike this week; a confirmed hike plus Warsh press-conference hawkishness could flush gold back to 4,200 swiftly.