Gold

Key insight

4,297 holds — but FOMC decision tomorrow at 92.5% hike probability makes any bounce a sell. Break of 4,282 pivot targets 4,175 August swing low.

Dropped to 2-week lows as 10Y Treasury yields hit highest since 2007; 92.5% FedWatch probability of a hike tomorrow caps upside at 4,340 resistance.

Main risk

FOMC Rate Decision – 17 Sep 2026

92.5% FedWatch hike probability; Fed Chair Warsh's 'work to do' signal locks in hawkish outcome — gold's key headwind.