Gold

Key insight

4,311 consolidates near all-time highs; break above 4,350 round resistance opens 4,500. Pullback buyers active above 4,200 Fib support — trend stays bullish while 4,150 holds.

4,311 holds above the 200-day MA near 3,950 and prior ATH at 3,500 — structural uptrend intact; oil at $99 and mild USD softness reinforce safe-haven and real-asset bid.

Main risk

Fed hawkish pivot / real yield spike

Surprise Fed rate-hold signal could push 10-yr real yields above 2.5%, hitting gold hard below 4,200 Fib support.