Gold

Key insight

4,288 tests the 21-day MA — a close below 4,250 (prior breakout shelf) would shift momentum bearish; above 4,350 re-opens the all-time high extension toward 4,500.

Pullback to 4,288 follows a multi-month uptrend; USD strength (DXY bid, EUR/USD -0.4%) explains today's -1.4% dip, but structural safe-haven and central-bank demand keeps the bull trend intact.

Main risk

USD Strength / Real Yield Spike

USD/JPY +0.6% to 154.4 signals broad dollar demand; a further DXY leg higher pressures gold below 4,250 breakout shelf.