Gold

Key insight

4,399 broken to the downside this week — bears need a hot CPI today to accelerate toward 4,255; a soft print flips the Fed narrative and squeezes back to 4,500.

4,348 holds intraday after futures opened at a 5-week low of 4,359; CPI print due today is the swing factor between a Fed hike on Sep 16 and a hold.

Main risk

FOMC Rate Hike – Sep 16

Hot PPI at 5.4% YoY has pushed Fed hike probability above 70%; a confirmed hike would pressure gold through 4,255 support.