Gold

Key insight

4,400 round number acting as near-term base; break above 4,450 June swing high opens path to 4,550. Failure to hold 4,380 (10-day MA) would signal short-term exhaustion after extended rally from sub-3,000 lows.

4,414 holds above the 200-day MA near 3,900 and psychological $4,400 — structural uptrend intact; real yields still suppressed and central bank buying underpins demand.

Main risk

USD reversal / real yield spike

Sharp USD rally or 10-yr real yield jump above 2.5% would pressure gold; DXY reclaim of 102 key warning sign.