Gold

Key insight

4,412 clears prior consolidation — next technical target is 4,500 round number. Equity weakness across Europe (-1.4%) and US futures reinforces gold's safe-haven role. Stop invalidation sits at 4,200.

4,412 holds above the 2026 breakout base near 4,200; +1.3% today with equities soft confirms safe-haven bid. USD/JPY -0.5% adds tailwind as dollar slips against majors.

Main risk

Real Yield Spike on Hawkish Fed Signal

Surprise Fed hawkishness lifting 10-yr real yields above 2.5% would pressure XAU; 4,200 support would be the first line tested on any sharp selloff.