Gold

Key insight

Bounce from $4,350 50-day MA zone with PBoC record buy confirmed — reclaim $4,400 opens path to $4,500. Fed decision Sep 17 is the binary gate for trend continuation.

Holds $4,377 after Tuesday dip below $4,400; PBoC's record 650k-oz August buy and US-Iran tensions sustain bid despite 60% Fed hike odds next week.

Main risk

Fed 25bp hike + hawkish guidance

60% market-implied prob of Sep 17 hike; a hawkish statement could spike real yields, breaking $4,300 support.