Gold

Key insight

4,360 tests the 23.6% Fib retracement of the 2026 leg up — hold here keeps the bull structure intact; a close below 4,320 would be the first warning shot since March.

Pullback to 4,360 is a -1% session dip within a structural uptrend; 200-day MA sits far below, trend intact. USD/JPY at 154 and oil at $92 signal stagflation premium keeping gold bid on dips.

Main risk

Real yield spike on hot US data

Surprise US CPI or jobs beat could push 10-yr real yields above 2.3%, pressing gold toward 4,200 support.