Gold

Key insight

4,400 holding as intraday floor on a -0.6% pullback — dip within uptrend; next directional read comes from US CPI and Fed guidance. Break below 4,350 (20-day MA) would flip near-term momentum bearish.

Holds above $4,400 psychological support after a multi-month advance; USD/JPY down 1.2% and oil at $90.6 reinforce stagflation hedging demand. Structural bull trend intact above 200-day MA near $3,850.

Main risk

USD rebound / real yield spike

Surprise US jobs strength or Fed hawkish pivot could lift 10-yr real yields, driving XAU toward 4,200 Fibonacci 38.2% support.