Gold

Key insight

4,407 sits in the middle of Sep's 4,314–4,646 consolidation band. US CPI print this week is the binary trigger: soft data deflates rate-hike bets and reopens 4,500+; hot print sends gold toward 4,300 support.

Retreated to 4,407 from Sep 4 high near 4,522 — Fed rate-hike probability at ~50% after Waller's dovish pivot caps upside while Iran conflict underpins floor.

Main risk

FOMC September rate hike decision

50% hike probability per CME FedWatch — a confirmed 25bp raise would spike real yields and pressure gold toward 4,300.