Gold

Key insight

4,472 holds above 20-day MA; $157 single-session recovery from Wed's Iran-shock low of 4,357 — break above 4,500 round number opens path to all-time highs near 5,050 if ceasefire narrative holds.

Surged +$157 intraday on Trump "short-lived" Iran signal; spot at 4,472 reclaims Sep 1 open of 4,498 — geopolitical safe-haven bid outweighs rate-hike headwind.

Main risk

Fed Sep rate hike — 66% CME probability

Warsh's 'work to do' comment pushes 25bps hike to 66% — rate hike confirmed Sep 17 puts real-yield pressure on gold below 4,400.