Gold

Key insight

4,338 consolidates inside Aug range; break above 4,460 Aug swing high opens path to 4,600. DXY at 99.6 and capped real yields sustain structural bull case. Watch Sep 5 NFP as binary near-term catalyst.

Holds $4,337 — 23% below Jan ATH of $5,597 but structurally bid; DXY sub-100, negative real yields, and central bank demand keep dip-buyers active.

Main risk

USD / Real Yield Reversal

Stronger-than-expected NFP Sep 5 could lift DXY back above 101, pressuring gold toward 4,200 support zone quickly.