Gold

Key insight

$4,450 acts as near-term pivot; break above $4,500 round number opens $4,600 target. Failure below $4,380 (20-day MA) flips short-term bias. Silver outperforming (+0.3% vs gold -0.1%) signals base metals strength, not gold weakness.

Holds $4,450 with structural uptrend intact; USD weakness (EUR/USD 1.1616 +0.3%) and real-yield pressure support the trend. Minor -0.09% pause after extended rally — dip-buyers remain in control above key supports.

Main risk

USD reversal / real yield spike

Snap-back in DXY above 100 or 10-yr real yield above 2.2% would pressure gold below $4,380 20-day MA fast.