Gold

Key insight

4,445 consolidates below the round 4,500 ceiling after a historic run — bull trend valid while 4,380 200-day proxy support holds; a daily close above 4,500 opens 4,600+.

4,445 holds above the prior ATH breakout zone near 4,400 — structural uptrend intact with USD soft (EUR/USD 1.1597) and real yields capped by Fed easing expectations.

Main risk

USD/Real-Yield Reversal

Surprise hawkish Fed shift or CPI re-acceleration drives 10-yr yields above 4.8%, pressuring gold below key 4,380 support.