Gold

Key insight

4,603 holds above 200-day MA ($4,340) after rejecting $4,715 — JPM targets $6,000 by Q4; FOMC Sept 15–16 is the trigger gate. Strait of Hormuz closure sustains inflation risk and gold safe-haven premium.

Pulled back to $4,603 from $4,715 highs — 50-day MA at $4,730 caps upside but $40tn US debt record and central bank buying keep structural bid intact.

Main risk

50-day MA Rejection at $4,730

Twice capped below $4,730 50-day MA this week — failure to reclaim turns resistance into a structural ceiling into FOMC.