Gold

Key insight

4,589 consolidates after +2.3% weekly gain; PCE data digested, next leg needs Fed pivot signal or geopolitical shock to crack $4,700 resistance.

Holds $4,589 — 18% below Jan ATH of $5,597 with Fed on hold at 3.50–3.75% (61% Sep pause) and central banks buying 289t/qtr, anchoring the floor.

Main risk

Fed holds rates at 3.50–3.75%

61% probability of Sep pause caps rate-cut tailwind; real yields stay elevated, pressuring XAU below $4,700 resistance.