Gold

Key insight

4,633 holds as interim support after Wednesday's 4,730.90 high; a close back above 4,700 re-opens the Jan 2026 all-time high at 5,597. PCE and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech (Sat Aug 29) are the binary near-term catalysts.

Pulled back to 4,633 from 4,730 high — bullish structure intact; Treasury bond buyback doubling and record central bank buying sustain the uptrend.

Main risk

FOMC hawks / Fed Chair Warsh hawkish pivot

July FOMC minutes showed several members argued for rate rises; Warsh speech Sat Aug 29 could reignite hike fears and spike real yields, pressuring gold sharply.