Gold

Key insight

4,610 holds above the rising 20-day MA (~4,520); ETF outflows are the near-term drag, but central bank demand at 289t in Q2 — 1.6× year-ago — anchors the floor. Next catalyst: US Q2 GDP (Aug 27) and PCE data.

Pullback to 4,610 after Aug 21 high near 4,634 — US $40tn debt record and persistent central bank buying (289t in Q2) keep the structural bid intact above 4,500.

Main risk

Fed rate-cut delay into 2027

Goldman, HSBC, JPM all cut year-end targets citing no Fed cuts in 2026; yields staying high compress gold's non-yielding appeal below 4,500.