Gold

Key insight

4,474 holds above key 4,400 round support — today's -1.1% dip is a healthy consolidation in a bull trend; a reclaim of 4,500 opens the path to 4,600.

Pullback to 4,474 after parabolic run keeps structural uptrend intact; USD/JPY at 158.6 and real-rate suppression sustain gold's safe-haven bid above 4,400 round support.

Main risk

USD & real-yield spike on hawkish Fed

Fed pivot delay pushing 10-yr real yields higher would pressure gold below 4,400; a break there targets the 50-day MA near 4,280.