Gold

Key insight

4,400 is the immediate bull/bear line — holds above keep ATH at 5,597 in play; Aug 20 FOMC minutes release is the binary macro reset for direction this week.

4,393 holds as Fed rate-hike bets collapse on weak US data; bond yields at decade highs met by safe-haven bid and US-Iran ceasefire expiry lifting geopolitical premium.

Main risk

Bond yields at multi-decade highs

Yields surging to highest in decades raise gold's opportunity cost; a sustained break above current levels could pressure XAU toward 4,250 Fib support.