Gold

Key insight

4,388 consolidates below all-time highs — Silver outperforming (+0.8% vs Gold's +0.3%) confirms metals bid; next directional move hinges on US real yield direction and Fed guidance.

Holds $4,388 with USD soft (EUR/USD 1.1597) and real yields capped — structural bid intact above the 50-day MA near $4,180, no technical damage to the uptrend.

Main risk

USD/JPY at 159.3 — BoJ policy pivot risk

Sudden JPY strength from BoJ rate action would lift real yields globally, pressuring Gold below $4,300 support.