Gold

Key insight

$4,390 is the line — hold it and the path to $4,500 opens; lose it and $4,200 (200-day MA) comes back into play fast. Silver's 1.3% surge confirms broad metals strength today.

Holds $4,390 with silver outpacing (+1.3%) — metals complex bid across the board. USD soft (EUR/USD 1.1580), real yields capped, central bank demand structurally intact.

Main risk

USD/JPY reversal compresses gold bid

USD/JPY at 159.1 and falling — if JPY weakness reverses sharply, dollar strength re-emerges and pressures gold below $4,320 channel support.