FTSE 100

Key insight

The FTSE 100 is within striking distance of its all-time high at 10,934.94 — a clean break above would be a historic technical breakout and a powerful signal for further institutional inflows into UK value equities.

FTSE 100 is trading at 10,811, just 1.1% below its all-time high of 10,934.94, with momentum supported by easing Middle East tensions and the BoE's 3.75% base rate easing cycle.

Main risk

US-Iran ceasefire fragility and oil price reversal

Brent crude has swung violently between $86 and $100+ this month on Middle East headlines — any resumption of hostilities could spike oil above $100 again, hitting consumer and transport stocks and reversing the current risk-on bid.