FTSE 100

Key insight

10,646 sits in a 10,500–10,750 consolidation band; a close above the Oct swing high at 10,750 or below the 200-day MA at 10,500 sets the next 300-point directional leg.

10,646 holds above 200-day MA (~10,500) but DAX -1.7% drag and GBP/USD flat at 1.3307 cap any rally; FTSE's defensive tilt cushions losses relative to eurozone peers.

Main risk

DAX contagion / European risk-off

DAX -1.7% signals broad European selling; FTSE's low beta delays but does not prevent a test of 10,500 200-day MA if selling extends into the close.