FTSE 100

Key insight

The US-Iran ceasefire pause has collapsed the geopolitical risk premium built into UK equities over the past two weeks; with oil now at $83 and the BoE at 3.75%, the path to a fresh all-time high above 10,934 is the most live setup on the board right now.

The FTSE 100 is trading at 10,784 — just 1.4% below its all-time high of 10,934.94 — driven by a sharp easing of Middle East tensions and a ~6% crash in oil prices that relieves cost-of-living and margin pressure across UK domestics.

Main risk

US-Iran Ceasefire Breakdown / Oil Spike Resumption

Any resumption of US-Iran hostilities could rapidly reverse oil's 6%+ drop and send Brent back above $95–$100, crushing the energy cost relief that is currently lifting UK consumer and industrial stocks.