FTSE 100

Key insight

10,750 is the line in the sand: reclaim it and the 10,800 ceiling opens; lose 10,650 (50-day MA) and a retest of 10,500 support becomes the path of near-term least resistance for FTSE longs.

Stalling at 10,722 — index capped below the 10,800 round-number resistance while European peers (DAX -0.3%, CAC -0.5%) drag on risk appetite ahead of key UK macro events.

Main risk

Oil at $98 — energy sector overweight

Oil $98.3 — if crude rolls over from this level, FTSE's ~14% energy weight amplifies index downside faster than peers.