FTSE 100

Key insight

10,800 is the line in the sand — four failed closes above it this month. Break higher opens 11,000; failure here risks a flush to the 10,550 50-day MA.

10,719 holds above the 200-day MA near 10,650 but fails to reclaim 10,800 resistance — sideways chop with GBP/USD at 1.3303 capping export-earner tailwinds.

Main risk

Brent Crude above $98 squeezing consumers

98.4 oil lifts energy sector but crushes UK consumer discretionary — BOE rate-cut path narrows if CPI re-accelerates above 3%.