FTSE 100

Key insight

Oil has crashed from ~$100/barrel last week to $83.6 today — a dramatic reversal that is a net positive for the majority of FTSE 100 constituents (consumers, industrials, airlines) even as it drags energy giants Shell and BP.

The FTSE 100 has broken above the 10,700 prior resistance zone and is pushing toward the 52-week high of 10,910, supported by strong UK PMI expansion (52.1), blowout retail sales (+1.0%), and a sharp oil decline to $83.6 that relieves input cost pressure on non-energy blue chips.

Main risk

Middle East Escalation / Strait of Hormuz disruption

A renewed oil supply shock above $100/barrel triggered a 0.7% FTSE selloff on 23 July; any fresh Iran/Hormuz escalation could repeat this rapidly, reversing the current oil tailwind.