FTSE 100

Key insight

10,500 breached on a closing basis — this round-number/prior-high confluence at 10,500 is the key bull/bear line; a weekly close above it opens 10,750 as next resistance. GBP weakness amplifies earnings for dollar earners in the index.

10,501 holds above the 200-day MA at ~10,200 and challenges the 2024 high zone near 10,500 — GBP/USD softness at 1.3203 provides a tailwind for the FTSE's large-cap dollar earners.

Main risk

Oil reversal from $89 — energy drag

Oil -1.4% to $89.2 pressures BP and Shell, which together carry ~8% FTSE weighting — a sustained drop below $85 cuts index earnings estimates.