FTSE 100

Key insight

UK private sector activity returning to growth in July, combined with a reversal of the oil-driven panic sell-off, gives bulls a credible catalyst to push the FTSE 100 toward all-time highs above 10,700 for the first time since the June peak.

The FTSE 100 has rebounded from Thursday's 0.7% sell-off and is reclaiming the 10,680 area, supported by a July UK PMI return to growth and easing oil prices off the $100/bbl scare — a constructive close above the 10,640 prior-session support would confirm the recovery.

Main risk

US-Iran geopolitical escalation & Strait of Hormuz closure risk

Trump's renewed threats to Iran's infrastructure and the risk of Strait of Hormuz disruption could spike Brent crude back above $100/bbl, hitting sentiment hard and unwinding Friday's relief rally below 10,600.