FTSE 100

Key insight

The FTSE 100 is caught between a bullish domestic backdrop (BoE at 3.75%, solid UK GDP) and a bearish external shock (US-Iran tensions driving oil above $91 and bond yields higher), making direction resolution dependent on today's ECB decision and the geopolitical headline flow.

FTSE 100 is consolidating just above the key 10,600 round-number support after yesterday's 1%+ rally to a three-month high, with upside capped by escalating US-Iran geopolitical risk and surging Brent crude weighing on sentiment.

Main risk

US-Iran Military Escalation & Brent Crude Spike

Trump's renewed threats against Iranian infrastructure have driven oil toward $91+, raising stagflation fears for the UK economy and compressing FTSE 100 sentiment just as the index tests its three-month high near 10,720.