FTSE 100

Key insight

10,700 round number caps the rally — break above opens 10,800 swing high; failure risks a retest of 10,580 200-day MA. Oil at $99.4 (+2.3%) is the single biggest near-term swing factor given FTSE's ~12% energy weighting.

10,664 holds above the 200-day MA (~10,580) but stalls below 10,700 round resistance; FTSE outperforms peers (+0.2%) as oil at $99.4 boosts energy heavyweights BP and Shell.

Main risk

Brent Crude reversal from $100

Oil at $99.4 drives FTSE outperformance; a turn below $95 would strip energy sector tailwind and drag the index back toward 10,580.