FTSE 100

Key insight

Oil at ~$97-98/bbl (Brent) — up nearly 5% on the day per broker feed — is the dominant force: it simultaneously pressures UK consumer and industrial stocks via inflation fears while threatening Bank of England rate-cut hopes, creating a classic stagflationary headwind for the index.

The FTSE 100 has broken back below the key 10,650 intraday support, giving up all of Wednesday's 131-point rally, as surging oil prices near $98/bbl and a hawkish ECB hold stoke stagflation fears and pressure rate-sensitive UK equities.

Main risk

US-Iran Conflict Escalation — Strait of Hormuz/Kharg Island Threat

Trump's threat to seize Iran's Kharg Island (which handles ~90% of Iran's oil exports) risks a supply shock that could drive Brent above $110/bbl, reigniting global inflation and forcing the BoE to pause its easing cycle, crushing the FTSE's rate-sensitive financials and consumer sectors.