FTSE 100

Key insight

The FTSE 100's surprise surge above 10,700 in July is being tested by a political shock (new Chancellor John Healy) and US-Iran escalation driving oil and gold higher — defence stocks are the standout beneficiary, but the index needs a clean break above 10,750 to confirm the next leg up.

FTSE 100 is consolidating near the 10,715 level — well above the historic 10,000 breakout floor but stalling at the 10,750 resistance zone, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war between strong UK GDP data and US-Iran geopolitical risk.

Main risk

US-Iran Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Risk

Escalating US-Iran conflict is driving Brent crude higher toward $87 and injecting global risk-off pressure that historically weighs on the FTSE 100's internationally exposed energy and consumer names, while threatening supply chain disruptions.