FTSE 100

Key insight

Today's 1.56% rally — coinciding with Oil at $86.9 (+3.1%) and defence stocks leading — is a structural advantage for the FTSE 100's energy/defence-heavy composition, but geopolitical risk cuts both ways if the US-Iran conflict escalates into a demand-destruction shock.

The FTSE 100 has surged +1.56% to 10,743, clearing the 10,700 round-number resistance and hitting fresh 2026 highs, driven by a +3.1% oil spike and defence-sector leadership amid elevated US-Iran geopolitical tensions.

Main risk

US-Iran Conflict Escalation — Strait of Hormuz Risk

If Iran retaliates to US strikes and disrupts Strait of Hormuz oil flows, a demand-destruction shock could reverse FTSE 100 energy-sector gains and spike risk-off sentiment, threatening the 10,500 support zone.