FTSE 100

Key insight

The FTSE 100's ability to rally 61 points on Tuesday despite surging oil prices — historically a headwind — signals genuine underlying strength driven by defence, energy, and commodity heavyweights offsetting political noise from the new Burnham government.

The FTSE 100 at 10,598.50 is holding firmly above the key 10,500 round-number support and the 50-day MA near 10,480, underpinned by its defensive commodity and banking sector weighting as US-Iran tensions lift oil prices.

Main risk

US-Iran Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Disruption Risk

US forces have conducted nine consecutive days of strikes on Iranian targets; any closure or threat to the Strait of Hormuz could spike oil above $95 and trigger a sharp global risk-off selloff, pulling the FTSE back toward the 10,300 zone.