FTSE 100

Key insight

The FTSE 100 has surged ~6% YTD from its historic 10,000 breakout in January 2026, but political regime change in Westminster and a ninth consecutive day of US strikes on Iran introduce regime-level uncertainty that could cap the rally at the 10,650 swing high.

The FTSE 100 is holding near the 10,600 all-time high zone, but a new UK government under PM Andy Burnham and unresolved US-Iran military conflict are creating a ceiling on further near-term gains.

Main risk

UK Political Regime Change — PM Andy Burnham / New Chancellor

PM Burnham sacked Chancellor Rachel Reeves on July 20, introducing fiscal policy uncertainty at a critical moment for UK gilt markets and sterling, with GBP/USD already under pressure at 1.3379.