FTSE 100

Key insight

The FTSE 100's structural tilt toward defensive energy, mining, and healthcare heavyweights is acting as a double-edged sword: it insulates the index from the global AI tech selloff but also binds it to surging oil prices that threaten inflation and delay Bank of England rate cuts.

The FTSE 100 is consolidating near the 10,545 level — above the key 10,500 round-number support — but is capped by political uncertainty after Andy Burnham's appointment as PM and the escalating US-Iran conflict keeping risk appetite in check.

Main risk

US-Iran Military Conflict Escalation & Oil Above $88/bbl

US forces have conducted nine consecutive days of strikes against Iranian targets, pushing Brent crude back toward $88–$90/bbl, which risks reigniting UK inflation and forcing the BoE to hold its 3.75% rate for longer, squeezing rate-sensitive domestics.