FTSE 100

Key insight

Today's 0.78% decline to 10,460 — well below Friday's 10,600 close — signals the index has failed to hold its first gain above 10,600 in eight sessions, with the new political transition and Middle East risk premium resetting the short-term range lower toward the 10,350–10,400 zone.

The FTSE 100 has broken back below the key 10,500 round-number support and the prior consolidation range floor, driven by a confluence of escalating US-Iran geopolitical risk, Brent crude spiking above $90, and domestic political uncertainty as Andy Burnham is inaugurated as UK Prime Minister today.

Main risk

US-Iran Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Risk

A sixth consecutive night of US strikes on Iran and Brent crude surging above $90/bbl is driving a global risk-off wave, compressing equity multiples and threatening to reignite UK inflation expectations that could delay further Bank of England rate cuts.