Dow Jones

Key insight

51,462 Sep 16 post-hike low is the line in the sand — break it and the Dow opens a path to the 200-day MA near 50,200. Fed funds at 3.75–4.00% with another hike signaled; oil above $95 adds cost pressure to industrials.

51,731 holds above Sep 16 low of 51,462, but 10-yr yield back at 5%+ and Fed flagging another hike before year-end pins the Dow to a third consecutive losing week.

Main risk

Fed Oct hike + 10-yr yield at 5%

10-yr yield at 5.006%, highest since Jul 2007; traders pricing Oct hike at high probability — PE compression risk for all 30 Dow components.