Dow Jones

Key insight

51,461 low from Sep 16 Fed crash is now the pivotal level — hold above it confirms stabilisation; break re-opens 50,800 and then the 200-day MA near 50,200.

Dow sits 311 pts above Sep 16 post-Fed crash low of 51,461 — Fed hiked to 3.75%-4% and flagged more hikes; structural headwinds intact.

Main risk

Fed signals additional 25bp hike

FOMC dot plot flags 1-2 more hikes; 10-yr yield hit 4.857% (highest since Nov 2023), compressing Dow multiples.