Dow Jones

Key insight

Dow fades below 52,573 Sep 11 close — FOMC decision this week is the binary gate: a rate rise confirmation sends the index toward 51,500 support; a pause rallies it back above 53,000.

52,369 sits 1,200 pts below the Sep 3 high of 53,686 — hot NFP (+162k vs 53k est.), hotter core CPI, and oil at $100 point Fed toward a rate rise, not a cut.

Main risk

Fed Rate Rise — FOMC Sep 2026

Aug NFP 162k vs 53k est. and core CPI 2.4% YoY give Fed cover to raise; 2-yr yield at highest since Jan 2025 signals market is bracing.