Dow Jones

Key insight

52,773 sits 600pts below the Sep 3 high with 10-yr yield at 4.818% — highest since Nov 2023. Aug CPI on Sep 11 is the next binary catalyst; a hot print likely forces a test of 52,000.

Pulled 900pts off 53,686 Sep 3 peak — oil shock, Saudi facility attacks, US-Canada trade war escalation, and 58% Fed hike probability weigh on blue-chips.

Main risk

Fed Rate Hike / 10-yr Yield at 4.82%

58% market-implied hike probability post-162K payrolls print. Yield at 4.818% crushes Dow P/E multiples; any CPI upside accelerates the selloff.