Dow Jones

Key insight

Reject at 53,686 Sep high confirmed — first session post-Labor Day opens flat, but Fed hike risk at Sept FOMC and 10-yr yield near 4.82% cap upside. Hold 52,800 or pullback accelerates toward 52,200 50-day MA.

53,064 sits 621 pts below Sep 4 high of 53,686 — hot Aug NFP (162K vs 53K est.) revived Fed hike bets to 50%, sending 10-yr yield to 4.818%, Nov 2023 high.

Main risk

Fed Rate Hike at Sept FOMC

50.4% market-implied probability of Sept hike after 162K NFP beat; a hike confirmation breaks 52,200 50-day MA support.