Dow Jones

Key insight

53,300 acts as a pivot: three consecutive closes within 100 pts of this level signal indecision. Break above 53,500 opens 54,000; loss of 52,800 (50-day MA) shifts bias bearish.

Holds 53,300 but -0.09% drift confirms no conviction; index stalls below the 53,500 intraday supply zone with all major US benchmarks flat on the session.

Main risk

Fed policy path re-assessment

Sticky USD/JPY at 159.4 and oil at $84.8 keep inflation risk alive; any hawkish Fed signal hits rate-sensitive Dow industrials hardest.