Dow Jones

Neutral

Archived analysis from Aug 12, 2026, 3:30 AM

Key insight

July CPI (Aug 12, 08:30 ET) is the binary trigger: hot print kills rate-cut bets; cool print targets 54,500+.

Stalls 300pts below Aug 4 record 54,085 — pre-CPI pause with rate-cut odds in flux.

Main risk

July CPI surprise — upside inflation

Hot CPI reprices Fed cuts, pressures 53,400 support and invalidates the Aug rally.

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