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CAC 40

Neutral

8,688.80 EUR ▼ -0.33%

Analysis from Aug 12, 2026, 3:32 AM

8,726 all-time high capping rallies — break above opens 9,000; Hormuz closure a binary geopolitical overhang

8,714 holds near record highs but Iran/Hormuz impasse caps upside; STMicro -3.2% drags tech

Main Risk

Strait of Hormuz closure — US/Iran

Iran blocks strait until blockade lifted; energy disruption lifts oil, pressures margins

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Price Ladder

Hard Stop: 8,420.00 — Break of 50-day MA ~8,420 invalidates Aug recovery thesis; signals trend reversal

Support 2: 8,480.00 — 50-day MA (approx.)

Support 1: 8,614.00 — Aug 3 closing support

Resistance 1: 8,726.00 — All-time high (Aug 11)

Resistance 2: 8,800.00 — Round number / extension target

Bull Target 1: 8,850.00 — Fib 127.2% extension

Bull Target 2: 9,000.00 — Key round number / bull target

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Scenarios

🐻 Hormuz Escalation Breaks ATH Support

Geopolitical escalation + margin pressure drives retreat to 50-day MA zone near 8,350.

🐂 Hormuz Deal + Luxury Rebound

Geopolitical relief + luxury tailwind propels CAC through ATH toward 9,000 round number.

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Macro Drivers

ECB Rate Policy — ECB in easing cycle supports equity valuations; next decision watched for pace of further cuts.

Luxury Goods — LVMH & Hermès — LVMH and Hermès drove CAC's 8% YTD gain; China demand recovery sustains premium weighting.

US-Iran Geopolitical Tension — Hormuz closure rhetoric keeps oil elevated at $83; Airbus -1%, Safran -0.5% on cost pressure.

EUR/USD at 1.1538 — Strong euro trims export competitiveness for luxury/industrial names with USD revenue base.

STMicroelectronics Tech Drag — STMicro fell 3.24% Aug 11 — semiconductor weakness caps tech-linked recovery in CAC.

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Key Dates & TradingBrief View

📅 ECB policy minutes release — mid-Aug 2026

📅 France CPI flash estimate — approx. Aug 14, 2026

📅 LVMH / Hermès investor updates — late Aug 2026

📅 US-Iran nuclear talks progress — ongoing, fluid

📅 Eurozone Q2 GDP final print — late Aug 2026

Cautiously Neutral — Hold near 8,714; add above 8,726 ATH break; cut below 8,614 Aug support

ATH at 8,726 is the line — Hormuz stalemate limits upside; luxury strength limits downside. Wait for resolution.

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