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Nasdaq 100

Bullish

29,811.40 USD ▲ +0.97%

Analysis from Aug 12, 2026, 1:47 PM

29,822 — full recovery from 11% correction; next resistance at 30,200 (Aug all-time high). Bull thesis needs volume to hold.

Rally extends to 29,822 — 9.3% melt-up from correction lows holds; AI earnings momentum intact.

Main Risk

US-Iran Strait of Hormuz tensions

Escalation risks oil shock; Aug 11 headlines flagged fresh U.S.-Iran concern, a known volatility catalyst.

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Price Ladder

Hard Stop: 28,500.00 — Break below 50-day MA ~28,500 invalidates post-correction recovery thesis entirely.

Support 2: 28,750.00 — 50-day MA

Support 1: 29,200.00 — Aug breakout base / round number

Resistance 1: 30,200.00 — Aug 2026 all-time high

Resistance 2: 30,800.00 — Fib 127.2% extension

Bull Target 1: 30,200.00 — Aug 2026 ATH retest

Bull Target 2: 31,000.00 — Round number / Fib 161.8% ext.

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Scenarios

🐻 Geopolitical Shock Reversal

27,200 (200-day MA) retested if macro shocks stack; needs 2+ triggers simultaneously.

🐂 AI Earnings Momentum Breaks ATH

31,000 in reach if AI capex cycle accelerates and Fed pivot confirmed at Jackson Hole.

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Macro Drivers

AI Earnings Cycle — Palantir +30.7%, Amazon beat, SpaceX Q2 revenue beat — $3.5tn market cap added in 4 days.

Fed Rate Policy & Jackson Hole — Weak July jobs print raises September cut odds; Jackson Hole speech is next critical catalyst.

US-Iran / Strait of Hormuz Risk — Aug 11 headlines flagged fresh U.S.-Iran tension; oil spike would pressure NDX multiples fast.

10-Year Treasury Yield — Rising yields pressured Wall Street after the initial melt-up; watch 4.40% as key inflection level.

USD weakness / EUR-USD at 1.1554 — Dollar softness supports USD-denominated mega-cap tech earnings revisions and EM fund flows into US equities.

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Key Dates & TradingBrief View

📅 US CPI print — Aug 13, 2026 (key inflation gauge)

📅 Fed Jackson Hole Symposium — late Aug 2026

📅 NVDA Q2 earnings — ~Aug 27, 2026 (AI bellwether)

📅 Fed FOMC minutes release — Aug 2026

📅 US Retail Sales data — Aug 15, 2026

Cautiously Bullish — Hold longs above 29,200; add on confirmed break above 30,200 ATH with stop at 28,500.

AI earnings cycle intact post $3.5tn rally, but geopolitical overhang and stretched 9.3% 4-day run call for disciplined sizing.

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