TradingBrief

US Indices · Briefing

Nasdaq 100

Bullish Sep 25, 2026, 8:19 PM

30,614 holds above the 200-day MA near 29,800 — index up ~40% from 2025 lows with S&P 500 at 7,741 confirming broad risk-on breadth.

30,636.10
↗ +0.09% · 24h · USD

Key insight

30,614 trades flat on the day but sits at critical inflection: break above 31,000 round number opens 32,500 Q1 2026 swing high. Failure below 30,000 exposes 29,800 200-day MA.

Main risk

USD/JPY carry unwind risk

USD/JPY -1.0% to 157.3 today — rapid yen strength historically triggers tech deleveraging; watch 155 support.

Price levels

Levels around the price

Current price highlighted.

Bull Target 2All-time high extension target +9.3 % 33,500.00
Bull Target 1Q1 2026 swing high +6.1 % 32,500.00
Resistance 2Feb 2026 swing high +3.8 % 31,800.00
Resistance 1Key round number resistance +1.2 % 31,000.00
Current 30,636.10
Support 1Round number / Aug consolidation base -2.1 % 30,000.00
Support 2200-day MA -2.7 % 29,800.00
Hard StopBreak of 29,200 invalidates bull structure — below 200-day MA and Mar 2026 swing low -4.7 % 29,200.00
Bear Target -10.2 % 27,500.00
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Scenarios

Bull and bear

Bull scenario Prob. high

Breakout Above 31,000 Round Number

31,000 breach unlocks Q1 2026 high at 32,500 as primary bull target.

Target 32,500.00

Triggers

  • —Close above 31,000 on strong volume confirms breakout
  • —Fed signals rate cut path at next FOMC meeting
  • —Mega-cap tech earnings beat Q3 estimates
Bear scenario Prob. medium

Yen Surge Sparks Tech Deleveraging

Yen strength + rate shock forces tech liquidation; 29,800 MA breaks, 28,500 next.

Target 28,500.00

Triggers

  • —USD/JPY breaks below 155 triggering carry unwind
  • —10-yr Treasury yield spikes above 4.8%
  • —Break below 200-day MA at 29,800 on volume
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Macro drivers

What is moving the price

Fed Rate Policy Stance

bullish

Fed on hold after 2025 cuts; stable rates support tech multiples at elevated 30,600 levels.

10-Year Treasury Yield

neutral

Yields steady near 4.5% — not rising fast enough to compress NDX valuations further.

USD/JPY Yen Dynamics

bearish

JPY +1% today to 157.3; rapid yen strength historically pressures leveraged tech longs.

Oil at $92.3 — Energy Inflation Risk

bearish

Oil +0.7% to $92.3 keeps inflation elevated, limiting Fed room to cut rates.

Gold at $4,290 — Safe Haven Bid

neutral

Gold +0.4% to $4,290 signals macro unease; not yet a flight-to-safety panic for equities.

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Key dates

What is coming next

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Key dates and the concrete TradingBrief view

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This briefing was generated automatically by AI and published on Sep 25, 2026, 8:19 PM. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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